Model Predictions
| Model | New Mexico State Aggies | San José State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.9% | 25.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.1% | 24.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: San José State Spartans +2 (72-70). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
New Mexico State Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hernst Laroche * | 39 | 4-12 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 | -14.2 |
| Tyrone Watson * | 39 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | -6.8 |
| Troy Gillenwater * | 38 | 8-19 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | -15.8 |
| Tshilidzi Nephawe * | 23 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -6.4 |
| Bandja Sy * | 13 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -9.1 |
| Christian Kabongo | 29 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | +9.0 |
| Hamidu Rahman | 17 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | -3.2 |
| Gordo Castillo | 15 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -1 | -3.7 |
| B.J. West | 12 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 12 | +9.5 |
San José State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Oliver * | 44 | 12-25 | 5-10 | 7-7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 18 | +10.7 |
| Justin Graham * | 42 | 3-12 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | +10.1 |
| Matt Ballard * | 40 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | +8.1 |
| Keith Shamburger * | 40 | 3-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Wil Carter * | 32 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 15 | +8.3 |
| Calvin Douglas | 10 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | +8.8 |
| Joe Henson | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Chris Jones | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | +2.9 |
| Garrett Ton | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.5 |
* = starter