Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State Spartans | Minnesota Golden Gophers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 31.2% | 68.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.9% | 46.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Minnesota Golden Gophers -5 (48-53). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalin Lucas * | 39 | 7-16 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | - |
| Draymond Green * | 35 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 | - |
| Mike Kebler * | 25 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Keith Appling * | 20 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Garrick Sherman * | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Delvon Roe | 22 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - |
| Durrell Summers | 20 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -1 | - |
| Adreian Payne | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Austin Thornton | 11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Derrick Nix | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
Minnesota Golden Gophers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Mbakwe * | 36 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Blake Hoffarber * | 35 | 1-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Ralph Sampson III * | 33 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Colton Iverson * | 21 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Rodney Williams * | 11 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Austin Hollins | 26 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Chip Armelin | 21 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Maverick Ahanmisi | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Dominique Dawson | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter