Model Predictions
| Model | Valparaiso Beacons | Green Bay Phoenix | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 69.6% | 30.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 69.4% | 30.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.2% | 25.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.1% | 25.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Green Bay Phoenix +1 (81-80). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Valparaiso Beacons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Wood * | 40 | 9-19 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 12 | -6.0 |
| Ryan Broekhoff * | 37 | 6-10 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 15 | +0.0 |
| Erik Buggs * | 32 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | -5.9 |
| Howard Little * | 28 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 5 | -4.1 |
| Cory Johnson * | 24 | 0-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -5 | -2.3 |
| Matt Kenney | 32 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -1.9 |
| Kevin Van Wijk | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 10 | -3.3 |
| Michael Rogers | 10 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +2.5 |
| Cameron Witt | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.6 |
| Jay Harris | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -1.8 |
Green Bay Phoenix
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rahmon Fletcher * | 38 | 6-13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +5.6 |
| Alec Brown * | 37 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 22 | +6.7 |
| Bryquis Perine * | 37 | 9-17 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 5 | -0.9 |
| Jarvis Williams * | 36 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +7.4 |
| Greg LeSage * | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1.1 |
| Daniel Turner | 34 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | +11.1 |
| Seth Evans | 17 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Steve Baker | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -8.5 |
| Clayton Heuer | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.2 |
* = starter