Model Predictions
| Model | North Dakota Fighting Hawks | Northern Colorado Bears | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 7.1% | 92.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 20.0% | 80.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 16.6% | 83.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 28.0% | 72.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.0% | 96.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.9% | 96.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Northern Colorado Bears +18 (87-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Schuler * | 32 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -10.1 |
| Troy Huff * | 31 | 6-17 | 2-7 | 6-8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 9 | -1.5 |
| Jamal Webb * | 29 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 9 | -2.0 |
| Brandon Brekke * | 28 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -1.2 |
| Patrick Mitchell * | 27 | 4-10 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | -11.7 |
| Aaron Anderson | 17 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 8 | -9.9 |
| Jordan Allard | 16 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | +3.6 |
| Chris Clausen | 9 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +0.6 |
| Derek Benter | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.0 |
| Nick Haugen | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Dan Stockdale | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1.2 |
| Doug Archer | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Mike Mathison | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.1 |
Northern Colorado Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Beitzel * | 37 | 7-15 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 18 | +6.6 |
| Neal Kingman * | 31 | 8-13 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 13 | +10.2 |
| Chris Kaba * | 29 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 | +15.6 |
| Elliott Lloyd * | 23 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +6.7 |
| Taylor Montgomery * | 17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | +12.5 |
| Paul Garnica | 20 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | -5.3 |
| Emmanuel Addo | 14 | 5-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | -3.8 |
| Tate Unruh | 13 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -9.2 |
| Mike Proctor | 12 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -8.3 |
| Kevin Hanes | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Xzaivier James | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Dave Arnold | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Mike Bedford | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.3 |
* = starter