Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | Western Michigan Broncos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.3% | 72.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Western Michigan Broncos +3 (68-65). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Cousin * | 29 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 12 | +8.6 |
| Jon Ekey * | 21 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | -12.6 |
| Blake Mishler * | 21 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +14.3 |
| Austin Hill * | 19 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 5 | +6.3 |
| Tony Lewis * | 18 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | +7.9 |
| Justin Clark | 28 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +7.6 |
| Jackie Carmichael | 22 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -10.3 |
| John Wilkins | 17 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -10.3 |
| Alex Rubin | 14 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7.4 |
| Trey Blue | 11 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4.8 |
Western Michigan Broncos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demetrius Ward * | 34 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 4-6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 16 | +2.0 |
| Mike Douglas * | 31 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -4.8 |
| Matt Stainbrook * | 29 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | -16.5 |
| Juwan Howard Jr. * | 26 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | -1.4 |
| Nate Hutcheson * | 24 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | +0.0 |
| Alex Wolf | 24 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | +5.2 |
| Flenard Whitfield | 16 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | +9.3 |
| Caleb Dean | 11 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -1 | +3.3 |
| Dan Loney | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Brandon Pokley | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2.6 |
* = starter