Model Predictions
| Model | Missouri State Bears | Valparaiso Beacons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.1% | 30.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.4% | 30.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Valparaiso Beacons +13 (80-67). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Missouri State Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Mallett * | 38 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 11 | -11.0 |
| Adam Leonard * | 35 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14.5 |
| Kyle Weems * | 31 | 7-21 | 1-8 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | -0.6 |
| Nafis Ricks * | 28 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 5 | -10.7 |
| Will Creekmore * | 18 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -5.5 |
| Nathan Scheer | 31 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | -6.5 |
| Caleb Patterson | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -10.4 |
| Isaiah Rhine | 7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -5.0 |
| Corey Copeland | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.6 |
Valparaiso Beacons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Wood * | 32 | 9-20 | 3-10 | 3-5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 14 | +19.6 |
| Howard Little * | 29 | 5-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | +6.3 |
| Ryan Broekhoff * | 26 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 13 | +16.9 |
| Erik Buggs * | 26 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | +6.9 |
| Cory Johnson * | 24 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 12 | +10.7 |
| Matt Kenney | 21 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | +7.0 |
| Michael Rogers | 14 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +0.1 |
| Jay Harris | 13 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3.0 |
| Kevin Van Wijk | 13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +4.1 |
| Cameron Witt | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0.7 |
* = starter