Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.0% | 77.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 29.3% | 70.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.2% | 81.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 17.6% | 82.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks +3 (73-70). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan White * | 42 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 8-11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 20 | +4.5 |
| Tony Bishop * | 37 | 11-15 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 24 | -5.6 |
| John Bowman * | 36 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -5.4 |
| Travis Jones * | 18 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | -13.5 |
| Cameron Johnson * | 17 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -8.2 |
| Eddie Rios | 28 | 1-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | +12.9 |
| Matt Staff | 18 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +9.6 |
| J.B. Conley | 18 | 4-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | -0.9 |
| Brooks Ybarra | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.1 |
| Uriel Segura | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.8 |
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Williams * | 43 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 3-7 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 13 | +4.0 |
| Jordan Glynn * | 42 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2.5 |
| Jereal Scott * | 39 | 11-16 | 0-0 | 8-11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 25 | +9.2 |
| Antonio Bostic * | 36 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | +4.4 |
| P. Gardner * | 35 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 4-6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | -3.7 |
| Mark Gomillia | 17 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Dion Prewster | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -7.4 |
| Amos Olatayo | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
* = starter