Model Predictions
| Model | Boise State Broncos | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.5% | 69.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.3% | 39.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 60.4% | 39.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos -2 (76-78). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Boise State Broncos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La'Shard Anderson | 41 | 4-13 | 0-1 | 10-14 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 22 | +3.2 |
| Jeff Elorriaga | 39 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +6.5 |
| Daequon Montreal | 36 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 15 | +2.3 |
| Paul Noonan | 32 | 4-14 | 3-9 | 9-10 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 11 | -3.9 |
| Westly Perryman | 27 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9.6 |
| Robert Arnold | 14 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +9.3 |
| Ryan Watkins | 11 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +10.9 |
| Thomas Bropleh | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2.0 |
| Zach Moritz | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -5.3 |
| Tre Nichols | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4.0 |
| Sean Imadiyi | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -0.8 |
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Nunnally | 42 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 8-11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 17 | +2.6 |
| Orlando Johnson | 38 | 7-17 | 1-4 | 10-11 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 21 | -1.5 |
| Jaime Serna | 28 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 19 | +4.7 |
| Justin Joyner | 24 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +3.7 |
| Jordan Weiner | 20 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5.6 |
| Jon Pastorek | 19 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +5.6 |
| Will Brew | 18 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -2 | -12.6 |
| Greg Somogyi | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4.0 |
| Troy Leaf | 14 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +7.3 |
| Kyle Boswell | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
* = starter