Model Predictions
| Model | Hartford Hawks | UMBC Retrievers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.2% | 37.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 59.3% | 40.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 71.2% | 28.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 79.4% | 20.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 79.5% | 20.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.7% | 40.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UMBC Retrievers -7 (57-64). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Hartford Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Burton | 37 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Joe Zeglinski | 33 | 6-14 | 6-10 | 4-6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 15 | - |
| Morgan Sabia | 31 | 1-11 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | - |
| Anthony Minor | 29 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 16 | - |
| Clayton Brothers | 28 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Genesis Maciel | 16 | 5-12 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | - |
| Ryan Baker | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Kevin Estes | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Ross Erickson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
UMBC Retrievers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fry | 35 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 30 | - |
| Adrian Satchell | 33 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Jamar Wertz | 30 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 4-5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Chris De La Rosa | 22 | 1-7 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -6 | - |
| Bakari Smith | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Laurence Jolicoeur | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Travis King | 16 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Brian Neller | 14 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | - |
| Chase Plummer | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Matt Conway | 3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter