Model Predictions
| Model | San Francisco Dons | Gonzaga Bulldogs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.8% | 72.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 21.2% | 78.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 7.1% | 92.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 6.9% | 93.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.5% | 77.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Gonzaga Bulldogs +17 (70-53). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Francisco Dons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Doolin * | 34 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -0.4 |
| Michael Williams * | 32 | 5-11 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | -9.6 |
| Angelo Caloiaro * | 27 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | -2.6 |
| Rashad Green * | 21 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -6.3 |
| Moustapha Diarra * | 15 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -4 | -2.7 |
| Justin Raffington | 24 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Marko Petrovic | 20 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | +3.0 |
| Cole Dickerson | 14 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4.7 |
| Avery Johnson | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.0 |
Gonzaga Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Gray * | 34 | 7-18 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 11 | +13.0 |
| Marquise Carter * | 34 | 7-10 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 18 | +6.7 |
| Elias Harris * | 26 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 12 | +12.8 |
| Robert Sacre * | 16 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +6.2 |
| Demetri Goodson * | 15 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | +7.5 |
| David Stockton | 25 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | -1.8 |
| Sam Dower | 21 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3.8 |
| Kelly Olynyk | 12 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -3.8 |
| Mike Hart | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6.9 |
| Mathis Monninghoff | 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -2.3 |
| Manny Arop | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.1 |
| Mathis Keita | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.2 |
* = starter