Model Predictions
| Model | Austin Peay Governors | Fairfield Stags | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.0% | 86.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.4% | 69.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.7% | 64.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.4% | 73.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 26.4% | 73.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Fairfield Stags +7 (76-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Austin Peay Governors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Fraley * | 37 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 | -4.1 |
| TyShwan Edmondson * | 35 | 10-18 | 4-7 | 5-5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 15 | -4.4 |
| Will Triggs * | 35 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 5 | +1.7 |
| Caleb Brown * | 31 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 6 | -9.5 |
| Josh Terry * | 24 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -9.5 |
| Justin Blake | 20 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Tyrone Caldwell | 10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +0.0 |
| Melvin Baker | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -14.1 |
| Marcel Williams | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
Fairfield Stags
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Needham * | 39 | 6-17 | 3-10 | 4-4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 4 | +12.2 |
| Yorel Hawkins * | 31 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | +1.1 |
| Maurice Barrow * | 27 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 5 | -3.7 |
| Ryan Olander * | 26 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +14.9 |
| Warren Edney * | 20 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | +4.7 |
| Colin Nickerson | 31 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 7-9 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 27 | +8.3 |
| Keith Matthews | 19 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | -1.7 |
| Jamel Fields | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | +5.6 |
| Lyndon Jordan | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.5 |
* = starter