Model Predictions
| Model | Duquesne Dukes | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 58.1% | 41.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.4% | 21.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.6% | 21.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.7% | 39.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers +1 (64-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Duquesne Dukes
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Saunders * | 40 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | -4.7 |
| Bill Clark * | 40 | 6-14 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 5 | -7.7 |
| T.J. McConnell * | 31 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10 | +1.7 |
| B.J. Monteiro * | 28 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -11.5 |
| Eric Evans * | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -13.3 |
| Mike Talley | 30 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -2.7 |
| Sean Johnson | 16 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 5-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +2.9 |
| Joel Wright | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.3 |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson * | 32 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 14 | +16.9 |
| Paul Williams * | 28 | 1-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -1 | +12.0 |
| Juwan Staten * | 26 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 5-9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 7 | +3.9 |
| Josh Benson * | 23 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +6.0 |
| Chris Wright * | 15 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | +13.7 |
| Devin Searcy | 25 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 17 | -1.2 |
| Devin Oliver | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5.9 |
| Josh Parker | 15 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | +7.7 |
| Luke Fabrizius | 13 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -7.4 |
| Brandon Spearman | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Matt Kavanaugh | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
* = starter