Model Predictions
| Model | San Diego State Aztecs | Air Force Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 89.9% | 10.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 88.4% | 11.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 89.5% | 10.5% | -11.8 | ✓ (0.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 62.6% | 37.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 93.5% | 6.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 93.6% | 6.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 73.4% | 26.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Air Force Falcons -12 (58-70). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Thomas * | 38 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 21 | - |
| K. Leonard * | 34 | 4-14 | 1-2 | 9-10 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 22 | - |
| D.J. Gay * | 32 | 3-12 | 2-10 | 1-4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | - |
| B. White * | 25 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | - |
| J. Rahon * | 21 | 1-7 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| C. Tapley | 27 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 | - |
| B. Carlwell | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | - |
| J. Franklin | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| T. Shelton | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Air Force Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Washington * | 34 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | - |
| Michael Lyons * | 32 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 11 | - |
| Todd Fletcher * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Tom Fow * | 17 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Taylor Broekhuis * | 13 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Derek Brooks | 28 | 4-15 | 2-7 | 5-9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | - |
| Mike Fitzgerald | 16 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Taylor Stewart | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Adam Brakeville | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Zach Bohannon | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter