Model Predictions
| Model | San Diego State Aztecs | Air Force Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 86.0% | 14.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 89.5% | 10.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 75.4% | 24.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 65.2% | 34.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 96.3% | 3.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 96.4% | 3.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 72.8% | 27.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Air Force Falcons -12 (58-70). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Thomas * | 38 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 21 | -3.8 |
| Kawhi Leonard * | 34 | 4-14 | 1-2 | 9-10 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 22 | +1.5 |
| D.J. Gay * | 32 | 3-12 | 2-10 | 1-4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | -7.5 |
| Billy White * | 25 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | -2.0 |
| James Rahon * | 21 | 1-7 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -6.5 |
| Chase Tapley | 27 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 | -2.3 |
| Brian Carlwell | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1.1 |
| Jamaal Franklin | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5.5 |
| Tim Shelton | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.7 |
Air Force Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Washington * | 34 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | +9.2 |
| Michael Lyons * | 32 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 11 | +7.6 |
| Todd Fletcher * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +3.9 |
| Tom Fow * | 17 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +8.4 |
| Taylor Broekhuis * | 13 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +5.9 |
| Derek Brooks | 28 | 4-15 | 2-7 | 5-9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +1.5 |
| Mike Fitzgerald | 16 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +3.6 |
| Taylor Stewart | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3.0 |
| Adam Brakeville | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4.0 |
| Zach Bohannon | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.9 |
* = starter