Model Predictions
| Model | Cal State Fullerton Titans | Idaho State Bengals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.1% | 45.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.7% | 30.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.2% | 29.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Idaho State Bengals +5 (84-79). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Cal State Fullerton Titans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orane Chin | 36 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -8.7 |
| Devon Peltier | 31 | 9-18 | 6-12 | 8-9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 17 | -10.0 |
| Jer'Vaughn Johnson | 30 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 9 | -10.2 |
| Andre Hardy | 26 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | -10.6 |
| Perry Webster | 21 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -20.1 |
| Orlando Brown | 20 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -6.5 |
| Isiah Umipig | 16 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Eric Williams | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9.3 |
| Sedric Martin | 7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -2.9 |
Idaho State Bengals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broderick Gilchrest | 37 | 9-15 | 6-12 | 5-6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 21 | +12.0 |
| Deividas Busma | 30 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 11 | +11.9 |
| Phyllip Taylor | 27 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 8-10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 11 | +7.2 |
| Kenny McGowen | 26 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 6 | -4.5 |
| Abner Moreira | 24 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 11 | +13.0 |
| Mike Lacey | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2.6 |
| Chase Grabau | 19 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | +11.5 |
| Nick Mason | 11 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +6.8 |
| Kamil Gawrzydek | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3.8 |
* = starter