Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois Fighting Illini | Michigan State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 53.9% | 46.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.8% | 33.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Michigan State Spartans +4 (61-57). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demetri McCamey * | 39 | 5-12 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +3.1 |
| Mike Davis * | 35 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | -1.7 |
| Jereme Richmond * | 29 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -10.4 |
| Mike Tisdale * | 28 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | -1.5 |
| D.J. Richardson * | 20 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7.2 |
| Brandon Paul | 24 | 4-13 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | -7.8 |
| Bill Cole | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4.6 |
| Meyers Leonard | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Tyler Griffey | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.2 |
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalin Lucas * | 39 | 9-19 | 1-6 | 6-8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 10 | +13.8 |
| Keith Appling * | 29 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +12.5 |
| Delvon Roe * | 22 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 14 | +21.5 |
| Mike Kebler * | 21 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +10.8 |
| Garrick Sherman * | 15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | +9.9 |
| Draymond Green | 27 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -1.6 |
| Durrell Summers | 24 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | -2.5 |
| Adreian Payne | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11.9 |
| Derrick Nix | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4.5 |
| Austin Thornton | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.6 |
* = starter