Model Predictions
| Model | Evansville Purple Aces | Murray State Racers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.7% | 76.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.7% | 62.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State Racers +25 (72-47). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Evansville Purple Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Holmes * | 32 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | -27.6 |
| Colt Ryan * | 28 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 8 | -11.2 |
| Kenneth Harris * | 25 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -13.5 |
| Kavon Lacey * | 22 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -11.9 |
| Pieter van Tongeren * | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -13.9 |
| Ned Cox | 25 | 1-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | -16.5 |
| Clint Hopf | 25 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8 | -11.1 |
| Troy Taylor | 21 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -16.5 |
| Lewis Jones | 9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | -11.8 |
| Matt Peeler | 8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -0.1 |
Murray State Racers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.J. Jenkins * | 32 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 15 | +35.5 |
| Isacc Miles * | 28 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 7 | +27.8 |
| Jeffery McClain * | 27 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21 | +32.2 |
| Jewuan Long * | 21 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | +8.9 |
| Ed Daniel * | 16 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | +8.4 |
| Isaiah Canaan | 27 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | +14.6 |
| Donte Poole | 22 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | +6.0 |
| Ivan Aska | 18 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +9.4 |
| Chris Griffin | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Brandon Garrett | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2.0 |
| Shawn Jackson | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter