Model Predictions
| Model | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 68.7% | 31.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 56.6% | 43.4% | -1.5 | ✓ (1.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 73.5% | 26.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 73.6% | 26.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -3 (56-59). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Jones * | 38 | 9-22 | 1-9 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 4 | - |
| Shane Johannsen * | 32 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 18 | - |
| Stallon Saldivar * | 32 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Gabe Rogers * | 27 | 1-8 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | - |
| Austin Smith * | 15 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Eric Platt | 28 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Durrell Norman | 16 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Julian Olubuyi | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - |
| Josh Lepley | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Lewis * | 36 | 10-15 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 16 | - |
| David Hanson * | 32 | 4-15 | 0-6 | 2-4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Chris O'Brien * | 29 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Will Donahue * | 28 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | - |
| Maliik Love * | 18 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Jamal Johnson | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jordan Lewis | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Drake U'u | 12 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Matt Titchenal | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Ben Eisenhardt | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter