Model Predictions
| Model | Mercer Bears | North Florida Ospreys | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.6% | 62.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: North Florida Ospreys -3 (75-78). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Mercer Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Langston Hall * | 35 | 1-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | +2.3 |
| Brian Mills * | 30 | 11-22 | 0-1 | 12-14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 20 | +8.4 |
| Bud Thomas * | 28 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | -5.4 |
| Mark Hall * | 15 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -7.3 |
| Monty Brown * | 9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 | -7.3 |
| Jakob Gollon | 28 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | +1.3 |
| Chris Smith | 21 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -0.9 |
| Justin Cecil | 21 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -2.1 |
| Kevin Canevari | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Daniel Coursey | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | -1.8 |
| Paul Larsen | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.1 |
North Florida Ospreys
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Williams Jr. * | 36 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 8-12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 23 | -1.8 |
| Brad Haugabrook * | 34 | 8-12 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 8 | +4.9 |
| Andy Diaz * | 29 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 13 | -1.0 |
| Jerron Granberry * | 21 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 10-10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | +9.7 |
| David Jeune * | 19 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1.6 |
| Matt Sauey | 24 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | +13.2 |
| Parker Smith | 24 | 2-10 | 2-10 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -2 | -9.5 |
| Charles McRoy | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -5.8 |
| Will Wilson | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5.2 |
* = starter