Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.2% | 84.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.9% | 71.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.0% | 74.0% | +5.8 | ✓ (0.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.0% | 57.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 8.6% | 91.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.5% | 75.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.2% | 75.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +6 (79-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marshall * | 37 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | - |
| T. Zeller * | 32 | 10-14 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 21 | - |
| H. Barnes * | 30 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
| J. Henson * | 29 | 7-15 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 9 | - |
| D. Strickland * | 22 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| R. Bullock Jr. | 17 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| L. McDonald | 16 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | - |
| J. Knox | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| J. Watts | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Singler * | 40 | 3-17 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | - |
| N. Smith * | 37 | 13-23 | 3-6 | 5-7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 15 | - |
| M. Plumlee * | 29 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | - |
| R. Kelly * | 19 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | - |
| T. Thornton * | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| S. Curry | 35 | 8-12 | 2-5 | 4-5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 20 | - |
| M. Plumlee | 22 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 | - |
| A. Dawkins | 15 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | - |
* = starter