Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 17.1% | 82.9% | +8.7 | ✓ (2.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.8% | 81.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.5% | 68.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +6 (79-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Marshall * | 37 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Tyler Zeller * | 32 | 10-14 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 21 | - |
| Harrison Barnes * | 30 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
| John Henson * | 29 | 7-15 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Dexter Strickland * | 22 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Reggie Bullock | 17 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Leslie McDonald | 16 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Justin Knox | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Justin Watts | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Singler * | 40 | 3-17 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | - |
| Nolan Smith * | 37 | 13-23 | 3-6 | 5-7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 15 | - |
| M. Plumlee * | 29 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Ryan Kelly * | 19 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Tyler Thornton * | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Seth Curry | 35 | 8-12 | 2-5 | 4-5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 20 | - |
| M. Plumlee | 22 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 | - |
| Andre Dawkins | 15 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | - |
* = starter