Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.5% | 83.5% | +7.6 | ✓ (2.6 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.2% | 72.8% | +5.4 | ✓ (0.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +5 (103-98). Ratings: 2010-11 season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Lawson * | 43 | 7-15 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Kenyon Martin * | 35 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Wilson Chandler * | 32 | 5-15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 2 | - |
| Danilo Gallinari * | 31 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 11-12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 11 | - |
| JR Smith * | 31 | 11-19 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 11 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 28 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Gary Forbes * | 8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Timofey Mozgov | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 40 | 15-25 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 13 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 39 | 10-20 | 1-3 | 11-13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 18 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 37 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 10-11 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 24 | - |
| Mike Bibby * | 34 | 5-9 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 26 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 17 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 10 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| James Jones * | 9 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Eddie House | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Jamaal Magloire | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter