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2011-01-18

Model Predictions

Model Michigan State Spartans Illinois Fighting Illini Spread Result
Elo 46.2% 53.8% -
Bradley-Terry 60.8% 39.2% -
Margin 52.7% 47.3% -0.6 (9.6 off)
Pythagorean 40.0% 60.0% -
Efficiency 31.0% 69.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 31.8% 68.2% -
Log Adjusted 30.6% 69.4% -

Actual: Illinois Fighting Illini +9 (71-62). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Michigan State Spartans

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
D. Green * 33 5-14 1-4 1-1 6 4 0 0 0 12 8 -
D. Roe * 29 3-5 0-0 2-2 10 1 2 0 1 8 15 -
K. Appling * 28 1-5 1-5 0-0 4 1 0 0 0 3 3 -
K. Lucas * 28 7-14 1-5 0-0 2 2 0 0 3 15 2 -
A. Payne * 10 1-3 0-0 0-0 4 0 0 1 0 2 4 -
D. Summers 29 4-12 3-7 2-2 0 0 2 1 2 13 2 -
K. Lucious 24 1-8 1-5 0-0 2 3 0 0 0 3 0 -
D. Nix 11 2-3 0-0 2-4 6 1 0 0 1 6 9 -
M. Kebler 4 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
G. Sherman 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -
A. Thornton 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -

Illinois Fighting Illini

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
M. Davis * 38 4-6 0-0 3-4 11 0 0 0 0 11 16 -
D. McCamey * 37 4-11 2-4 5-8 3 11 2 0 3 15 17 -
D.J. Richardson * 29 2-5 2-4 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 6 2 -
M. Tisdale * 23 2-5 0-2 1-2 3 0 0 0 2 5 1 -
B. Cole * 17 0-1 0-1 0-0 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 -
B. Paul 26 7-11 4-6 2-3 3 1 1 1 1 20 14 -
J. Richmond 23 6-8 0-0 2-2 5 3 0 0 1 14 13 -
M. Leonard 5 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 -
T. Griffey 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -

* = starter