Model Predictions
| Model | Dayton Flyers | Xavier Musketeers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.6% | 69.4% | +4.5 | ✓ (0.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 32.5% | 67.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 13.5% | 86.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 16.9% | 83.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 16.6% | 83.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Xavier Musketeers +5 (81-76). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Staten * | 34 | 6-10 | 1-1 | 4-5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 14 | - |
| Paul Williams * | 30 | 3-9 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Chris Wright * | 28 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-7 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | - |
| Chris Johnson * | 26 | 6-10 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Devin Searcy * | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Josh Benson | 22 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Matt Kavanaugh | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Josh Parker | 15 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Brandon Spearman | 14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Luke Fabrizius | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Devin Oliver | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Xavier Musketeers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Jackson * | 39 | 1-10 | 1-8 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1 | - |
| Tu Holloway * | 39 | 7-12 | 2-5 | 8-8 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 19 | - |
| Jamel McLean * | 33 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 17 | - |
| Mark Lyons * | 33 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Kenny Frease * | 31 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 18 | - |
| Jeff Robinson | 16 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Andrew Taylor | 7 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Jordan Latham | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter