Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.0% | 73.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 17.2% | 82.8% | +8.7 | ✓ (7.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 27.9% | 72.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +16 (76-60). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Evans * | 34 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | - |
| M. Farrakhan * | 32 | 4-7 | 3-3 | 4-5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 14 | - |
| K. Harrell * | 26 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | - |
| A. Sene * | 20 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| W. Sherrill * | 14 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -2 | - |
| J. Harris | 28 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 9 | - |
| A. Mitchell | 22 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | - |
| S. Zeglinski | 18 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| W. Regan | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| B. Baron | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| T. Rogers | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Smith * | 39 | 10-19 | 1-6 | 8-9 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 21 | - |
| K. Singler * | 39 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | - |
| A. Dawkins * | 32 | 5-11 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | - |
| M. Plumlee * | 28 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | - |
| R. Kelly * | 18 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - |
| S. Curry | 27 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 5-5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| T. Thornton | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| J. Hairston | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Plumlee | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter