Model Predictions
| Model | San Diego State Aztecs | California Golden Bears | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 76.6% | 23.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 82.7% | 17.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 76.0% | 24.0% | -6.3 | ✓ (13.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 84.1% | 15.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 84.2% | 15.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: California Golden Bears -20 (57-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Gay | 37 | 5-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 8 | - |
| M. Thomas | 32 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| C. Tapley | 30 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 | - |
| K. Leonard | 29 | 8-14 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 12 | - |
| B. White | 24 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| J. Rahon | 17 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 | - |
| T. Shelton | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| B. Carlwell | 8 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| L. Franklin | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| M. Cheriet | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| J. Franklin | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| A. Williams | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
California Golden Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Crabbe | 34 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Harper Kamp | 33 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 6-7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Markhuri Sanders-Frison | 27 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Jorge Gutierrez | 25 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 9-9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Brandon Smith | 23 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Gary Franklin | 23 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3 | - |
| Richard Solomon | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Nigel Carter | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Emerson Murray | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Bak Bak | 6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
* = starter