Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Illinois Fighting Illini | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.6% | 83.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.8% | 40.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 54.0% | 46.0% | -0.9 | ✗ (12.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Illinois Fighting Illini +12 (79-67). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Henson | 28 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Harrison Barnes | 27 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Dexter Strickland | 25 | 2-9 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | - |
| Larry Drew | 24 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Tyler Zeller | 20 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Justin Knox | 17 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Kendall Marshall | 16 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Leslie McDonald | 15 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Justin Watts | 15 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Reggie Bullock | 13 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | - |
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Davis | 38 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 23 | - |
| D. McCamey | 35 | 6-12 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 14 | - |
| D.J. Richardson | 31 | 4-7 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | - |
| J. Richmond | 26 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 3 | - |
| M. Tisdale | 26 | 6-10 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 12 | - |
| B. Paul | 18 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -3 | - |
| M. Leonard | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| B. Cole | 12 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| T. Griffey | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter