Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 11.8% | 88.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.5% | 82.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 11.4% | 88.6% | +11.3 | ✗ (27.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.4% | 81.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.3% | 81.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.8% | 73.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -16 (77-93). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Granger * | 39 | 6-21 | 4-9 | 4-4 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | - |
| Brandon Rush * | 38 | 9-15 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 16 | - |
| Josh McRoberts * | 26 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - |
| T.J. Ford * | 26 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 14 | - |
| James Posey * | 22 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 21 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Roy Hibbert * | 21 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | - |
| Solomon Jones * | 20 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy * | 17 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Tyler Hansbrough | 6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 41 | 6-14 | 2-8 | 11-15 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 17 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 38 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 7-10 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 18 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 37 | 1-13 | 0-4 | 1-5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 25 | 5-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 22 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 15 | - |
| Eddie House * | 22 | 0-6 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| James Jones * | 20 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Juwan Howard * | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Jamaal Magloire * | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
* = starter