Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 65.0% | 35.0% | -3.4 | ✗ (14.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 21.9% | 78.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 79.7% | 20.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 7.3% | 92.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 7.2% | 92.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers +11 (79-68). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Drew II * | 34 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 17 | - |
| M. Ginyard * | 33 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | - |
| D. Thompson * | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 28 | - |
| W. Graves * | 30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 29 | - |
| J. Henson * | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | - |
| T. Zeller | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 11 | - |
| D. Strickland | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | - |
| L. McDonald | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| T. Wear | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Johnson * | 33 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 25 | - |
| C. Wright * | 28 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 27 | - |
| K. Huelsman * | 18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| C. Johnson * | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 22 | - |
| R. Lowery * | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - |
| P. Williams | 26 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 22 | - |
| L. Warren | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | - |
| D. Searcy | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| L. Fabrizius | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | - |
| M. Perry | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Benson | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter