Model Predictions
| Model | Dayton Flyers | Illinois Fighting Illini | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 12.8% | 87.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 30.6% | 69.4% | +4.5 | ✗ (10.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 25.2% | 74.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 86.9% | 13.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 86.9% | 13.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois Fighting Illini -6 (71-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Johnson * | 32 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2-6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | - |
| C. Wright * | 30 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | - |
| C. Johnson * | 26 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 9-10 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 15 | - |
| L. Warren * | 25 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | - |
| K. Huelsman * | 24 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | - |
| P. Williams | 18 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -1 | - |
| R. Lowery | 15 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | - |
| L. Fabrizius | 10 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| D. Searcy | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| M. Perry | 9 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| J. Benson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. McCamey * | 40 | 6-19 | 0-4 | 1-4 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 12 | - |
| M. Davis * | 31 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| D.J. Richardson * | 30 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | - |
| M. Tisdale * | 20 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| B. Cole * | 15 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - |
| B. Paul | 26 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 3-7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| D. Keller | 15 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| T. Griffey | 14 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | - |
* = starter