Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.2% | 84.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 20.6% | 79.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.1% | 88.9% | +11.4 | ✓ (9.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.2% | 97.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.2% | 97.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers +21 (63-42). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Phillips * | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | - |
| O. Eldridge * | 29 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 23 | - |
| A. Rubin * | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - |
| D. Odiakosa * | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | - |
| T. Lewis * | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| J. Clark | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| J. Carmichael | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| A. Hill | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | - |
| B. Mishler | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Johnson * | 27 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 24 | - |
| C. Wright * | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 | - |
| K. Huelsman * | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | - |
| M. Johnson * | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | - |
| L. Warren * | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 | - |
| R. Lowery | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - |
| M. Perry | 18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| P. Williams | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| D. Searcy | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | - |
| L. Fabrizius | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| J. Benson | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| M. Kavanaugh | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| D. Fox | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| L. Hendrick | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter