Model Predictions
| Model | San Diego State Aztecs | New Mexico Lobos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 38.0% | 62.0% | +2.7 | ✗ (5.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 25.8% | 74.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.5% | 29.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.7% | 29.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: New Mexico Lobos -3 (69-72). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Gay | 40 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
| M. Thomas | 38 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| K. Leonard | 37 | 5-11 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 17 | - |
| B. White | 35 | 11-14 | 1-1 | 5-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 11 | - |
| C. Tapley | 24 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| K. Davis | 16 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| B. Carlwell | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| T. Shelley | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
New Mexico Lobos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Hobson | 40 | 6-14 | 1-5 | 2-4 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 15 | - |
| D. Gary | 34 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 5-5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 9 | - |
| P. McDonald | 34 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| A.J. Hardeman | 29 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 16 | - |
| W. Brown | 29 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| R. Martinez | 22 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - |
| N. Garth | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| C. Dennis | 4 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter