Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.3% | 83.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.9% | 73.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 18.5% | 81.5% | +8.2 | ✓ (23.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 18.3% | 81.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 5.5% | 94.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +32 (82-50). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Ginyard | 36 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - |
| L. Drew II | 30 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| D. Thompson | 26 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 6 | - |
| J. Henson | 23 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | - |
| W. Graves | 23 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -4 | - |
| D. Strickland | 21 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| T. Zeller | 18 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | - |
| J. Watts | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| T. Wear | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | - |
| M. Campbell | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
| T. Petree | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| T. Thornton | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| J. Gallagher | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Singler | 37 | 8-17 | 3-6 | 6-6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 11 | - |
| J. Scheyer | 36 | 4-14 | 3-10 | 9-9 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 18 | - |
| N. Smith | 35 | 7-16 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 14 | - |
| B. Zoubek | 20 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 19 | - |
| M. Plumlee | 19 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 | - |
| M. Plumlee | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| L. Thomas | 16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| A. Dawkins | 11 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| R. Kelly | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| J. Davidson | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| S. Johnson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| C. Peters | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| K. Jackson | 0 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 0-5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 | - |
| J. Thomas | 0 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 4 | - |
| J. Cheek | 0 | 4-13 | 0-3 | 2-5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | - |
| K. Christmas-Kelly | 0 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 10-13 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 18 | - |
| K. Thomas | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | - |
* = starter