Model Predictions
| Model | Connecticut Sun | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 49.2% | 50.8% | +0.2 | ✗ (2.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.9% | 40.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.9% | 40.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -2 (94-96). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tina Charles | 33 | 9-17 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 21 | - |
| S. Gruda | 32 | 9-14 | 1-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 11 | - |
| A. Jones | 25 | 4-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| A. Jekabsone-Zogota | 21 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | - |
| K. Lawson | 20 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| K. Griffin | 20 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | - |
| T. White | 20 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | - |
| R. Montgomery | 20 | 7-12 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 14 | - |
| D. Walker | 9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diana Taurasi | 35 | 7-19 | 2-4 | 8-9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 14 | - |
| P. Taylor | 34 | 8-15 | 2-4 | 5-5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 15 | - |
| T. Johnson | 33 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Candice Dupree | 28 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
| T. Smith | 23 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner | 23 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 7-9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13 | - |
| N. Ohlde | 20 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 11 | - |
| K. Swanier | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter