Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Dream | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.9% | 45.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.8% | 42.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 56.9% | 43.1% | -1.5 | ✓ (1.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.4% | 50.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -3 (93-96). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Lyttle | 34 | 7-15 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 26 | - |
| A. McCoughtry | 33 | 11-28 | 2-5 | 4-7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 10 | - |
| E. de Souza | 29 | 9-18 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 14 | - |
| I. Castro | 25 | 4-16 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -1 | - |
| S. Lehning | 23 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | - |
| A. Herrington | 18 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - |
| K. Miller | 17 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| A. Bales | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Y. Leuchanka | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| C. Miller | 4 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Taylor | 37 | 4-14 | 0-2 | 10-11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 15 | - |
| D. Taurasi | 34 | 8-22 | 2-7 | 12-13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 15 | - |
| T. Johnson | 32 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | - |
| T. Smith | 29 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | - |
| D. Bonner | 27 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 19 | - |
| C. Dupree | 20 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| N. Ohlde | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| K. Swanier | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | - |
| S. Holmes | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter