Model Predictions
| Model | Missouri State Bears | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.2% | 57.8% | +1.7 | ✓ (2.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.4% | 39.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +4 (76-72). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Missouri State Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Leonard | 37 | 8-16 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 9 | - |
| J. Mallett | 33 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| K. Weems | 31 | 7-11 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 13 | - |
| J. Fuehrmeyer | 26 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | - |
| C. Patterson | 20 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| W. Creekmore | 18 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| N. Ricks | 15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | - |
| K. Pickens | 12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| I. Rhine | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| R. Jehle | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Eldridge | 37 | 7-12 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 4 | - |
| L. Phillips | 34 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 6-7 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 13 | - |
| D. Odiakosa | 32 | 12-17 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 24 | - |
| A. Rubin | 31 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| T. Lewis | 29 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| J. Carmichael | 15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| A. Hill | 12 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| J. Clark | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| K. Thornton | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter