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2010-02-06

Model Predictions

Model Michigan State Spartans Illinois Fighting Illini Spread Result
Elo 46.0% 54.0% -
Bradley-Terry 61.4% 38.6% -
Margin 63.8% 36.2% -3.1 (8.1 off)
Pythagorean 61.5% 38.5% -
Efficiency 75.1% 24.9% -
Adjusted Efficiency 78.7% 21.3% -
Log Adjusted 78.8% 21.2% -

Actual: Illinois Fighting Illini +5 (78-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Michigan State Spartans

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
R. Morgan 34 3-6 0-0 2-2 3 3 1 0 3 8 6 -
D. Summers 31 5-13 1-5 0-0 3 2 0 0 0 11 3 -
K. Lucious 30 1-5 1-5 1-2 4 3 2 0 6 4 2 -
D. Green 29 7-9 0-0 3-4 16 3 0 1 3 17 25 -
C. Allen 26 5-8 4-6 1-2 2 1 0 0 4 15 6 -
D. Roe 20 3-4 0-0 2-4 2 0 0 0 0 8 6 -
G. Sherman 15 3-5 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 6 1 -
M. Kebler 5 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 -
D. Nix 4 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -
A. Thornton 4 1-1 0-0 0-0 3 0 0 0 1 2 3 -
I. Dahlman 2 1-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 -

Illinois Fighting Illini

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
D. McCamey 39 8-12 6-9 0-2 2 11 0 0 2 22 21 -
M. Tisdale 34 3-6 0-0 0-0 8 1 0 1 2 6 8 -
D.J. Richardson 32 4-10 2-5 4-6 1 2 2 0 1 14 8 -
M. Davis 29 7-13 0-0 2-2 2 0 1 2 1 16 7 -
B. Paul 21 4-10 0-2 0-2 6 1 1 0 1 8 5 -
B. Cole 19 1-1 0-0 0-0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 -
T. Griffey 12 2-4 0-2 2-2 1 0 0 0 0 6 3 -
J. Jordan 10 1-1 0-0 0-0 1 1 1 0 0 2 4 -
D. Keller 4 1-2 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 -

* = starter