Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State Spartans | Illinois Fighting Illini | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.4% | 38.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 63.8% | 36.2% | -3.1 | ✗ (8.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 61.5% | 38.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 75.1% | 24.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.7% | 21.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.8% | 21.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Illinois Fighting Illini +5 (78-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Morgan | 34 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | - |
| D. Summers | 31 | 5-13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | - |
| K. Lucious | 30 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | - |
| D. Green | 29 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 25 | - |
| C. Allen | 26 | 5-8 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 6 | - |
| D. Roe | 20 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| G. Sherman | 15 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | - |
| M. Kebler | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| D. Nix | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| A. Thornton | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| I. Dahlman | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. McCamey | 39 | 8-12 | 6-9 | 0-2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 21 | - |
| M. Tisdale | 34 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | - |
| D.J. Richardson | 32 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 4-6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | - |
| M. Davis | 29 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 7 | - |
| B. Paul | 21 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| B. Cole | 19 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| T. Griffey | 12 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| J. Jordan | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| D. Keller | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter