Model Predictions
| Model | San Diego State Aztecs | New Mexico Lobos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.0% | 62.0% | +2.7 | ✓ (0.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 25.8% | 74.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.5% | 29.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.7% | 29.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: New Mexico Lobos +2 (88-86). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Gay | 45 | 8-12 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 18 | - |
| M. Thomas | 37 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 6-12 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | - |
| K. Leonard | 32 | 4-13 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | - |
| C. Tapley | 32 | 4-8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | - |
| K. Davis | 31 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| B. White | 19 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | - |
| B. Carlwell | 17 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| T. Shelley | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
New Mexico Lobos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Hobson | 43 | 9-17 | 4-5 | 7-9 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 33 | - |
| R. Martinez | 39 | 4-9 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| A.J. Hardeman | 36 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 1-6 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 15 | - |
| D. Gary | 34 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 11-14 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 12 | - |
| P. McDonald | 33 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| W. Brown | 17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| N. Garth | 11 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - |
| J. Fenton | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| C. Dennis | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
* = starter