Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Davis Aggies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.5% | 76.5% | +7.2 | ✓ (12.8 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.8% | 67.2% | +3.9 | ✓ (16.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.4% | 58.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Davis Aggies +20 (83-63). Ratings: 2009-10 season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Hanson | 35 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 6 | - |
| L. Keeler | 34 | 7-14 | 5-8 | 11-11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 14 | - |
| S. Lewis | 29 | 3-13 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -4 | - |
| R. Darling | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| C. Anderson | 21 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Jordan Lewis | 21 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| W. Taylor | 20 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| K. Odister | 14 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Justin Brown | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Royer | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Payne | 34 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 15 | - |
| Joe Harden | 33 | 5-13 | 0-0 | 9-10 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 16 | - |
| D. Calegari | 28 | 8-10 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 17 | - |
| R. Howley | 21 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| T. Lowenthal | 20 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - |
| J. Floyd | 17 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| A. Malik | 16 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| R. Sypkens | 13 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
| J. Welch | 12 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| J. Ranger | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter