Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.5% | 43.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 31.1% | 68.9% | +4.4 | ✗ (19.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 20.8% | 79.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.6% | 49.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -15 (60-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Landesberg | 34 | 11-18 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 19 | - |
| J. Evans | 31 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | - |
| M. Scott | 27 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 14 | - |
| S. Zeglinski | 27 | 5-9 | 5-8 | 4-4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 17 | - |
| J. Meyinsse | 22 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 | - |
| C. Baker | 18 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | - |
| W. Sherrill | 17 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| M. Farrakhan | 9 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| A. Sene | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| J. Jones | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| T. Kody | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| T. Spurlock | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| S. Tat | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D. Browman | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| T. Jonke | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Drew II | 31 | 5-13 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 4 | - |
| W. Graves | 31 | 5-15 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | - |
| D. Thompson | 29 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 5 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 28 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| E. Davis | 21 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | - |
| D. Strickland | 20 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| T. Wear | 16 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | - |
| L. McDonald | 8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| D. Wear | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Henson | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| T. Thornton | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| T. Petree | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| J. Gallagher | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Watts | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Campbell | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter