Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.9% | 45.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.9% | 51.1% | +0.2 | ✗ (14.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack -14 (63-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Thompson | 33 | 9-14 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 12 | - |
| W. Graves | 33 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| L. Drew II | 30 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 6-7 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 16 | - |
| E. Davis | 28 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 10 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 28 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
| T. Wear | 17 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| D. Strickland | 17 | 6-7 | 1-1 | 1-4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 8 | - |
| J. Henson | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| L. McDonald | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D. Wear | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wood | 36 | 1-9 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| T. Smith | 34 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 14 | - |
| F. Degand | 31 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | - |
| D. Horner | 29 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| J. Gonzalez | 24 | 6-11 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 13 | - |
| J. Mays | 18 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | - |
| R. Howell | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| C.J. Williams | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| J. Vandenberg | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Davis | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| D. Painter | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter