Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 12.6% | 87.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 16.9% | 83.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 41.0% | 59.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 29.3% | 70.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 29.3% | 70.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.6% | 71.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +9 (110-101). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monta Ellis * | 40 | 17-23 | 4-6 | 8-13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 46 | 24 | - |
| Corey Maggette * | 40 | 8-19 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 9 | - |
| Ronny Turiaf * | 30 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Stephen Curry * | 26 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Andris Biedrins * | 20 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 14 | - |
| C.J. Watson | 28 | 5-10 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Devean George | 25 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Coby Karl | 15 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Anthony Tolliver | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Chris Hunter | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Terry * | 38 | 8-17 | 1-4 | 4-5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 9 | - |
| Jason Kidd * | 33 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 19 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 32 | 9-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 16 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 30 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 17 | - |
| Eduardo Najera * | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Josh Howard | 31 | 9-15 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 7 | - |
| Drew Gooden | 26 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 16 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
| J.J. Barea | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| James Singleton | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Quinton Ross | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter