Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.3% | 82.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.7% | 68.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Orlando Magic +17 (99-82). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bogut * | 27 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Brandon Jennings * | 27 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Charlie Bell * | 26 | 5-11 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | - |
| Carlos Delfino * | 25 | 2-13 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Luc Mbah a Moute * | 20 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Luke Ridnour | 26 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Hakim Warrick | 23 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Ersan Ilyasova | 16 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Jerry Stackhouse | 15 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | - |
| Kurt Thomas | 15 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Jodie Meeks | 10 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Dan Gadzuric | 4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Carter * | 40 | 7-15 | 2-3 | 1-3 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 18 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 33 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 16 | - |
| Rashard Lewis * | 32 | 5-16 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 31 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 8-13 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 23 | - |
| Matt Barnes * | 29 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 14 | - |
| JJ Redick | 26 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 17 | - |
| Marcin Gortat | 16 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Ryan Anderson | 15 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Anthony Johnson | 14 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter