Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Utah Jazz | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.4% | 70.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.1% | 59.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Utah Jazz +12 (104-92). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 40 | 11-18 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 20 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 38 | 7-19 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 12 | - |
| Jason Kidd * | 36 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 13 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 32 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 19 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Drew Gooden | 28 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| J.J. Barea | 17 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 4 | - |
| Josh Howard | 11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Quinton Ross | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Eduardo Najera | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Matt Carroll | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Utah Jazz
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Millsap * | 40 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 21 | - |
| Deron Williams * | 38 | 7-15 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 23 | - |
| Andrei Kirilenko * | 36 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 18 | - |
| Mehmet Okur * | 30 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 6-8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 14 | - |
| Ronnie Brewer * | 22 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Wesley Matthews | 33 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| CJ Miles | 24 | 6-14 | 1-6 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 10 | - |
| Ronnie Price | 9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Kyrylo Fesenko | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
* = starter