Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.2% | 72.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.6% | 60.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.1% | 60.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.9% | 60.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -16 (81-97). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Delfino * | 42 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Andrew Bogut * | 34 | 10-13 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 19 | - |
| Brandon Jennings * | 32 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Charlie Bell * | 29 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | - |
| Hakim Warrick * | 26 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Luc Mbah a Moute * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Luke Ridnour * | 17 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Jerry Stackhouse * | 13 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 4-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Kurt Thomas * | 13 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Ersan Ilyasova | 9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Jodie Meeks | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 35 | 7-19 | 1-5 | 8-9 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 11 | - |
| Quentin Richardson * | 31 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Michael Beasley * | 27 | 6-16 | 1-2 | 3-6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 27 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 23 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 22 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Dorell Wright * | 21 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Rafer Alston * | 19 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Daequan Cook * | 18 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Jamaal Magloire * | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | - |
* = starter