Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento Kings | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 12.8% | 87.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 21.5% | 78.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 25.2% | 74.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.1% | 75.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.1% | 75.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.5% | 73.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +3 (112-109). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Sacramento Kings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Martin * | 46 | 5-17 | 2-7 | 10-11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 16 | - |
| Spencer Hawes * | 40 | 10-18 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 14 | - |
| Beno Udrih * | 31 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Omri Casspi * | 28 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Sergio Rodriguez * | 24 | 4-11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Donte Greene * | 24 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Jon Brockman * | 22 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 17 | - |
| Jason Thompson * | 18 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Sean May * | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Andres Nocioni | 23 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14 | - |
| Ime Udoka | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyon Martin * | 45 | 10-15 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 25 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 42 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Chauncey Billups * | 40 | 6-25 | 3-10 | 8-9 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 6 | - |
| JR Smith * | 33 | 4-13 | 0-7 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 32 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Ty Lawson * | 27 | 6-10 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Anthony Carter * | 16 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Joey Graham * | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter