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2010-01-20

Model Predictions

Model Duke Blue Devils NC State Wolfpack Spread Result
Elo 81.6% 18.4% -
Bradley-Terry 66.2% 33.8% -
Margin 70.5% 29.5% -4.8 (18.8 off)
Pythagorean 64.3% 35.7% -
Efficiency 88.6% 11.4% -
Adjusted Efficiency 93.3% 6.7% -
Log Adjusted 93.3% 6.7% -

Actual: NC State Wolfpack +14 (88-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Duke Blue Devils

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
N. Smith 40 7-14 2-3 2-2 2 2 1 0 2 18 7 -
K. Singler 40 6-16 0-3 10-12 5 0 1 0 3 22 9 -
J. Scheyer 39 5-16 3-7 8-10 4 2 1 0 1 21 11 -
L. Thomas 33 2-3 0-0 1-2 12 2 0 1 3 5 14 -
B. Zoubek 14 1-4 0-0 4-7 9 1 1 0 2 6 11 -
M. Plumlee 13 1-3 0-0 0-0 3 1 0 0 1 2 2 -
M. Plumlee 10 0-1 0-0 0-0 3 0 0 0 1 0 1 -
A. Dawkins 9 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -
R. Kelly 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

NC State Wolfpack

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
S. Wood 37 3-5 1-1 3-3 2 1 0 0 0 10 8 -
T. Smith 37 10-12 0-0 3-4 5 0 1 3 1 23 19 -
J. Gonzalez 32 4-9 2-4 5-6 3 8 0 0 2 15 15 -
F. Degand 31 3-6 1-1 4-5 4 6 1 0 1 11 15 -
D. Horner 25 8-15 1-5 3-5 2 2 1 1 1 20 10 -
R. Howell 15 3-5 0-1 1-3 5 1 1 0 3 7 6 -
J. Mays 11 1-1 0-0 0-0 1 0 1 0 0 2 3 -
C.J. Williams 6 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -
J. Vandenberg 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 -
J. Davis 3 0-1 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

* = starter