Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois Fighting Illini | Michigan State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.2% | 73.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.4% | 84.6% | +9.4 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 32.5% | 67.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.3% | 84.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 15.2% | 84.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Michigan State Spartans +10 (73-63). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. McCamey | 36 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 4-5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 9 | - |
| M. Davis | 27 | 4-15 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | - |
| D.J. Richardson | 26 | 0-8 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5 | - |
| B. Cole | 21 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| B. Paul | 20 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 3 | - |
| M. Tisdale | 19 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| D. Keller | 18 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | - |
| J. Jordan | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | - |
| T. Griffey | 15 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| R. Semrau | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Green | 30 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 13 | - |
| D. Summers | 29 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | - |
| K. Lucas | 29 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 8-9 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 12 | - |
| K. Lucious | 27 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| R. Morgan | 25 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 16 | - |
| C. Allen | 23 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| D. Roe | 20 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 7-7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 13 | - |
| D. Nix | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| G. Sherman | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| T. Herzog | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Sims | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| M. Kebler | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| A. Thornton | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| I. Dahlman | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter