Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.1% | 85.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.2% | 71.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.7% | 67.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.6% | 67.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors +15 (117-102). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Rush * | 36 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Earl Watson * | 33 | 5-14 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy * | 32 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Troy Murphy * | 31 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 4-6 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 17 | - |
| Danny Granger * | 30 | 3-13 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -1 | - |
| Luther Head * | 23 | 6-12 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | - |
| Roy Hibbert * | 20 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 11 | - |
| AJ Price * | 18 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 12 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bosh * | 37 | 12-21 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 28 | - |
| Antoine Wright * | 35 | 6-10 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Andrea Bargnani * | 34 | 7-12 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 11 | - |
| Jarrett Jack * | 33 | 6-8 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 14 | - |
| Sonny Weems * | 31 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Jose Calderon * | 27 | 6-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Amir Johnson * | 20 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 16 | - |
| Marco Belinelli * | 14 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Rasho Nesterovic * | 3 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Hedo Turkoglu * | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter