Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.5% | 39.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs -14 (89-103). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chauncey Billups * | 44 | 7-15 | 3-5 | 8-8 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 23 | - |
| Kenyon Martin * | 39 | 12-21 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 21 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 37 | 6-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15 | - |
| JR Smith * | 32 | 5-9 | 3-4 | 5-6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 28 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 27 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | - |
| Joey Graham * | 15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Ty Lawson * | 13 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hill * | 42 | 8-16 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 2 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 36 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Richard Jefferson * | 36 | 5-14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Manu Ginobili * | 33 | 3-11 | 1-3 | 7-8 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 16 | - |
| Antonio McDyess * | 30 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Roger Mason Jr. * | 20 | 1-6 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 17 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | - |
| DeJuan Blair * | 10 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Michael Finley * | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Keith Bogans | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Ian Mahinmi | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter