Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Suns | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Houston Rockets -4 (111-115). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Nash * | 41 | 2-10 | 1-6 | 6-6 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 25 | - |
| Amar'e Stoudemire * | 40 | 12-22 | 0-0 | 12-12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 23 | - |
| Grant Hill * | 38 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 18 | - |
| Jason Richardson * | 34 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Robin Lopez * | 27 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Jared Dudley * | 24 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Channing Frye * | 20 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Goran Dragic * | 14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Lou Amundson * | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Earl Clark * | 8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Jarron Collins | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Ariza * | 45 | 7-21 | 4-10 | 3-6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 14 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 44 | 3-12 | 1-7 | 4-6 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Aaron Brooks * | 43 | 8-22 | 4-11 | 4-6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 11 | - |
| Luis Scola * | 34 | 6-18 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 5 | - |
| Carl Landry * | 31 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Chase Budinger * | 23 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Chuck Hayes * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - |
| David Andersen * | 10 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Will Conroy * | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Joey Dorsey | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter